Will Paul Gibson win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $1.2k traded · market at 24%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Paul Gibson win the next Huon Valley mayoral election? | 0.240 | 0.250 | 24% | 2026-10-28 expected | $1.1k |
| kalshi | Huon Valley mayoral election winner? — Paul Gibson | 0.250 | 0.340 | 30% | 2027-10-27 | $109 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Tasmanian Electoral Commission — https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/local-government/elections-2026/i