2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? — Raphaël Glucksmann
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $15.3k traded · market at 56%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election | 0.540 | 0.580 | 56% | 2027-04-17 expected | $13.0k |
| kalshi | 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? — Raphaël Glucksmann | 0.740 | 0.790 | 76% | 2027-06-30 | $2.3k |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.020 | kals 0.510 | 47.25c | $238.14 | implausible spread — near-certain mis-match |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- NBC — https://www.nbcnews.com/
- ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com/
- relevant state Secretary of State or chief election official — https://kalshi.com/
- official state election websites — https://kalshi.com/
- relevant state board of elections — https://kalshi.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- Axios — https://www.axios.com
- Semafor — https://semafor.com
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.
Recent activity
- price move 10h ago -0.065
- price move 2d ago +0.060
- price move 2d ago +0.060