Will Scott Bessent be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $3.3k traded · market at 4.7%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Scott Bessent be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | 0.020 | 0.073 | 4.7% | 2027-01-01 expected | $2.5k |
| kalshi | Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — Scott Bessent | 0.030 | 0.040 | 3.5% | 2029-01-20 | $754 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.060 | poly 0.093 | 2.91c | $0.89 | diverges/medium [timing]: Kalshi's resolution window starts on May 22,… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.