Will Scott Turner be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $377 traded · market at 1.8%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Scott Turner be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | 0.010 | 0.026 | 1.8% | 2027-01-01 expected | $351 |
| kalshi | Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — Scott Turner | — | 0.010 | 1.0% | 2029-01-20 | $26 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.