Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $78.3k traded · market at 1.2%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | 0.005 | 0.019 | 1.2% | 2026-12-31 expected | $78.2k |
| kalshi | Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania? — Șerban Matei | 0.010 | 0.050 | 3.0% | 2045-01-01 | $73 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.009 | kals 0.010 | 0.03c | $0.01 | diverges/medium [office]: Polymarket requires formal appointment and a… |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.