Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $15.2k traded · market at 1.6%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? | 0.004 | 0.027 | 1.6% | 2027-12-31 expected | $15.2k |
| kalshi | Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? — Shabana Mahmood | — | 0.080 | 1.0% | 2028-01-01 | $22 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.066 | kals 0.030 | -3.80c | $-1.95 | edge disappears against the real book |
| poly 0.066 | kals 0.030 | -3.80c | $-1.95 | edge disappears against the real book |
| poly 0.066 | kals 0.030 | -3.80c | $-1.95 | edge disappears against the real book |
| poly 0.066 | kals 0.030 | -3.80c | $-1.95 | edge disappears against the real book |
| poly 0.066 | kals 0.030 | -3.80c | $-1.95 | edge disappears against the real book |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- BBC — https://www.bbc.co.uk
- The Prime Minister's Office — https://gov.uk
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.