Will the Department of Defense be renamed the Department of War by law? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $7.8k traded · market at 26%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will the Department of Defense be renamed the Department of War by law? — Before J | 0.240 | 0.270 | 26% | 2027-01-01 | $7.7k |
| kalshi | Will the Department of Defense be renamed the Department of War by law? — Before A | 0.340 | 0.400 | 37% | 2027-04-01 | $84 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- Library of Congress — https://congress.gov