polyrag

Will the midterms happen on time? — Yes

kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $283.3k traded · market at 92%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Will the midterms happen on time? — Yes 0.920 0.930 92% 2026-11-10 $283.3k

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

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