Will the Treasury announce sanctions on a Chinese bank? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $117 traded · market at 25%
loading price history…
What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will the Treasury announce sanctions on a Chinese bank? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.210 | 0.290 | 25% | 2027-01-01 | $116 |
| kalshi | Will the Treasury announce sanctions on a Chinese bank? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | — | — | 3.0% | 2026-10-01 | $12 |
| kalshi | Will the Treasury announce sanctions on a Chinese bank? — Before Nov 11, 2026 | 0.140 | 0.210 | 18% | 2026-11-11 | $1 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control — https://ofac.treasury.gov/specially-designated-nationals-and
- the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network — https://www.fincen.gov/resources/statutes-and-regulations/31