Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer? — Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · 4 contracts · 4 deadlines · $1.5k traded · market at 46%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer? — Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0.420 | 0.490 | 46% | 2028-01-01 | $507 |
| kalshi | Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer? — Before Aug 1, 2027 | 0.350 | 0.390 | 37% | 2027-08-01 | $447 |
| kalshi | Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer? — Before Dec 1, 2026 | 0.140 | 0.150 | 14% | 2026-12-01 | $282 |
| kalshi | Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer? — Before Apr 1, 2027 | 0.240 | 0.280 | 26% | 2027-04-01 | $255 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street — https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/prime-ministers-
- Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office — https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/foreign-commonwe