Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $1.2k traded · market at 25%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.220 | 0.280 | 25% | 2027-01-01 | $1.2k |
| kalshi | Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? — Before Apr 1, 2027 | 0.370 | 0.450 | 41% | 2027-04-01 | — |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
- the Federal Register — https://www.federalregister.gov/
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com/
- the White House — https://www.whitehouse.gov/
- CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/
- social media of the White House and the President of the United States — https://kalshi.com/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Axios — https://www.axios.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
- NBC — https://www.nbcnews.com/
- government agency — https://kalshi.com/
- Semafor — https://semafor.com
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
Recent activity
- price move 1d ago -0.090