Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
kalshi · 3 contracts · 3 deadlines · $3.9k traded · market at 35%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? | 0.330 | 0.370 | 35% | 2030-01-01 | $3.9k |
| kalshi | Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? — Be | 0.160 | 0.240 | 20% | 2028-01-01 | — |
| kalshi | Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? — Be | 0.240 | 0.320 | 28% | 2029-01-01 | — |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
- Axios — https://www.axios.com
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com/news
- CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/
- CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
- company/project — https://kalshi.com/
- Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com
- MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com/
- NBC — https://www.nbcnews.com/
- Politico — https://www.politico.com
- relevant federal courts — https://www.google.com/search?q=relevant+federal+courts
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/
- Semafor — https://www.semafor.com/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- the Department of Justice — https://www.justice.gov
- the Department of the Treasury — https://home.treasury.gov/
- the Federal Register — https://www.federalregister.gov
- the Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov
- The Information — https://www.theinformation.com
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
- the Securities and Exchange Commission — https://www.sec.gov
- the United States Congress — https://www.congress.gov
- The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- the White House — https://www.whitehouse.gov/
Recent activity
- price move 1d ago -0.300
- price move 1d ago -0.220