polyrag

Will Trump be impeached? — Before Jan 1, 2028

kalshi polymarket · 12 contracts · 11 deadlines · $998.3k traded · market at 66%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

sourcecontractbidask saysclosestraded
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Jan 1, 2028 0.650 0.660 66% 2028-01-01 $772.7k
polymarket Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? 0.630 0.670 65% 2029-01-20 expected $101.8k
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Mar 1, 2027 0.210 0.220 22% 2027-03-01 $85.7k
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Jan 1, 2027 0.031 0.034 3.2% 2027-01-01 $53.4k
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Jul 1, 2027 0.380 0.410 40% 2027-07-01 $1.6k
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Sep 1, 2026 — — 1.0% 2026-09-01 $1.1k
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Oct 1, 2027 0.530 0.540 54% 2027-10-01 $683
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Feb 1, 2027 0.040 0.050 4.5% 2027-02-01 $272
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Aug 1, 2027 0.420 0.460 44% 2027-08-01 $5
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Apr 1, 2027 0.210 0.260 24% 2027-04-01 —
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before May 1, 2027 0.250 0.300 28% 2027-05-01 —
kalshi Will Trump be impeached? — Before Jun 1, 2027 0.300 0.340 32% 2027-06-01 —

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

Cross-venue

buyselledgenotionalresolution
poly 0.026 kals 0.023 -0.46c $-0.65 edge disappears against the real book
poly 0.021 kals 0.030 0.70c $0.08 diverges/high [timing]: None
poly 0.021 kals 0.024 0.14c $0.00 diverges/high [timing]: None
poly 0.021 kals 0.024 0.14c $0.00 diverges/high [timing]: None
poly 0.021 kals 0.024 0.14c $0.00 diverges/high [timing]: None

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.

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