Will Trump declare an election emergency? — Before Nov 4, 2026
kalshi · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $38.6k traded · market at 14%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will Trump declare an election emergency? — Before Nov 4, 2026 | 0.130 | 0.160 | 14% | 2026-11-04 | $37.9k |
| kalshi | Will Trump declare an election emergency? — Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.200 | 0.230 | 22% | 2027-01-01 | $707 |
| kalshi | Will Trump declare an election emergency? — Before Sep 1, 2026 | — | — | 0.1% | 2026-09-01 | $94 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- the White House — https://www.whitehouse.gov
- Federal Register — https://www.federalregister.gov/
- the President of the United States — https://www.whitehouse.gov/
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