Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? — Before Jan 1, 2027

kalshi · 4 contracts · 4 deadlines · $161.6k traded · market at 44%

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What each source says

Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.

source	contract	bid	ask	says	closes	traded
kalshi	Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? — Before Jan 20, 2029	0.450	0.460	46%	2029-01-20	$97.2k
kalshi	Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? — Before Jan 1, 2027	0.170	0.190	18%	2027-01-01	$64.4k
kalshi	Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? — Before Jan 1, 2028	0.170	0.640	40%	2028-01-01	$15
kalshi	Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? — Before Dec 1, 2026	0.020	0.100	6.0%	2026-12-01	—

Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.

How this settles

The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.

ABC — https://abcnews.go.com/
Axios — https://www.axios.com/
CBS — https://www.cbsnews.com/
CNN — https://www.cnn.com/
Fox News — https://www.foxnews.com/
MSNBC — https://www.msnbc.com/
Politico — https://www.politico.com/
Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/
Semafor — https://www.semafor.com/
the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
The Information — https://www.theinformation.com/
The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/
The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
the White House — https://www.whitehouse.gov/

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