Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?
kalshi polymarket · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $32.0k traded · market at 5.0%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027? | 0.049 | 0.050 | 5.0% | 2027-01-01 expected | $25.1k |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Derek Chauvin | 0.015 | 0.049 | 3.2% | 2027-01-01 | $5.2k |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon? — Derek Chauvin | 0.220 | 0.270 | 24% | 2029-01-21 | $1.7k |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.039 | poly 0.025 | -1.66c | $-0.88 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.039 | poly 0.025 | -1.66c | $-0.88 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.040 | poly 0.025 | -1.77c | $-2.02 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.040 | poly 0.025 | -1.77c | $-2.02 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.039 | poly 0.025 | -1.66c | $-0.68 | edge disappears against the real book |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.