Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $54.9k traded · market at 1.9%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? | 0.010 | 0.028 | 1.9% | 2027-01-01 expected | $52.9k |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon? — Elon Musk | 0.280 | 0.330 | 30% | 2029-01-21 | $2.0k |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.028 | pred 0.030 | 0.20c | $0.00 | no live book on one leg |
| poly 0.028 | pred 0.030 | 0.20c | $0.00 | no live book on one leg |
| poly 0.028 | pred 0.030 | 0.20c | $0.00 | no live book on one leg |
| poly 0.028 | pred 0.030 | 0.20c | $0.00 | no live book on one leg |
| poly 0.028 | pred 0.030 | 0.20c | $0.00 | no live book on one leg |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.