Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 1 deadline · $10.3k traded · market at 4.8%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? | 0.047 | 0.049 | 4.8% | 2027-01-01 expected | $9.6k |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Nicolás Maduro | 0.020 | 0.045 | 3.2% | 2027-01-01 | $710 |
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kals 0.037 | poly 0.037 | -0.25c | $-0.15 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.037 | poly 0.037 | -0.25c | $-0.15 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.037 | poly 0.037 | -0.25c | $-0.15 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.037 | poly 0.037 | -0.25c | $-0.19 | edge disappears against the real book |
| kals 0.037 | poly 0.037 | -0.25c | $-0.19 | edge disappears against the real book |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.