Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
kalshi polymarket · 3 contracts · 2 deadlines · $141.8k traded · market at 3.5%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | 0.034 | 0.036 | 3.5% | 2027-01-01 expected | $132.8k |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon? — Sam Bankman-Fried | 0.300 | 0.330 | 32% | 2029-01-21 | $5.2k |
| kalshi | Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Sam Bankman-Fried | 0.040 | 0.050 | 4.5% | 2027-01-01 | $3.8k |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.039 | kals 0.040 | -0.17c | $-1.53 | edge disappears against the real book |
| poly 0.039 | kals 0.040 | -0.17c | $-1.45 | edge disappears against the real book |
| poly 0.039 | kals 0.040 | -0.17c | $-1.45 | edge disappears against the real book |
| poly 0.039 | kals 0.040 | -0.17c | $-1.54 | edge disappears against the real book |
| poly 0.038 | kals 0.040 | -0.07c | $-0.03 | edge disappears against the real book |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- White House — https://whitehouse.gov/
- New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com/
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.