Will Trump resign before 2027?
kalshi polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $103.9k traded · market at 18%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will Trump resign during his term? — Before his term ends | 0.170 | 0.180 | 18% | 2029-01-21 | $80.4k |
| polymarket | Will Trump resign before 2027? | 0.032 | 0.033 | 3.2% | 2027-01-01 expected | $23.5k |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.034 | kals 0.200 | 15.48c | $1.16 | implausible spread — near-certain mis-match |
| poly 0.039 | kals 0.200 | 14.98c | $1.12 | implausible spread — near-certain mis-match |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- Office of the Presidency — https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/executive-office-o
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