Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?
polymarket · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $8.4k traded · market at 5.2%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%? | 0.010 | 0.095 | 5.2% | 2027-01-29 expected | $7.6k |
| polymarket | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.5%? | 0.010 | 0.083 | 4.7% | 2026-10-29 expected | $821 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
How this settles
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