Will Wales announce an independence referendum? — Yes
kalshi · 1 contract · 1 deadline · $201 traded · market at 28%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Will Wales announce an independence referendum? — Yes | 0.250 | 0.310 | 28% | 2030-01-01 | $201 |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- UK Government Wales Office — https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/wales-office
- UK Parliament — https://votes.parliament.uk/
- Welsh Government — https://www.gov.wales/