Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? — Yair Lapid
kalshi · 2 contracts · 2 deadlines · $24 traded · market at 1.0%
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What each source says
Not all of these are prices. An order book is money you can take; an AMM quotes one probability with no book behind it; a forecast is nobody's price at all. They are worth reading together and must not be added together.
| source | contract | bid | ask | says | closes | traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? — Yair Lapid | — | 0.010 | 1.0% | 2027-10-27 | $18 |
| kalshi | Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel? — Yair Lapid | 0.001 | 0.019 | 1.0% | 2045-01-01 | $6 |
Several deadlines on one claim read as a term structure: the market prices the same question differently depending on when you ask it.
Cross-venue
| buy | sell | edge | notional | resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poly 0.002 | kals 0.020 | 1.66c | $8.30 | diverges/high [office]: Polymarket excludes interim/caretaker PMs and … |
How this settles
The venue names the authority that determines the outcome. It is the thing to watch — not the coverage of it.
- parliament or legislature of <country> — https://www.parliament.go.ke/
- official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- office of the head of state of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- major national news outlets of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- Financial Times — https://ft.com/
- the Associated Press — https://apnews.com/
- official government websites of <country> — https://kalshi.com/
- Reuters — https://www.reuters.com
- The Guardian — https://www.theguardian.com
- BBC — https://www.bbc.co.uk
- The Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com/
- Bloomberg News — https://www.bloomberg.com/news
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com
The full contract terms ↗ — the binding document, not the market blurb.