Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 8, 2026? — 38.3%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-08T16:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty: 5d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-05T16:40:00
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics must be exactly 38.3% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 8, 2026.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics (RCP) - specifically the 'President Trump Job Approval' table
Form the evidence must take. The sole resolution source is the 'RCP Average' row's 'Approve' column in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on the RealClearPolitics website, as it appears at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 8, 2026. No other source or time is acceptable.
Does not count.
- Any value other than 38.3% in that specific table cell at the exact deadline time.
- Any value from other tables, polls, or summaries not matching the exact source definition.
- Any value from the same table at a different time (before or after 1:00 PM ET on Oct 8, 2026).
Deadline. 2026-10-08T13:00:00-04:00 (1:00 PM ET)
- RCP approval average — The value displayed in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics.
- exactly — The numeric value must be precisely 38.3%, with no rounding or deviation.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No source shows the RealClearPolitics 'President Trump Job Approval' table at the exact deadline time, so the required value is not established. The cited articles are about other polls or the president's schedule, not the RCP average.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the exact value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the 'President Trump Job Approval' table on RealClearPolitics at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 8, 2026. The provided sources do not include that table or a screenshot/archival capture of it at that time; they only contain general news, schedules, and other polls.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A direct capture or archive of the RealClearPolitics 'President Trump Job Approval' table at 1:00 PM ET on October 8, 2026, showing the RCP Average row's Approve column equal to 38.3% (or a value other than 38.3%).
Sources it was read from · 8 cited
Adjudicated 5d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.