Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 10, 2026? — 37.8%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-10T16:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 3d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 10, 2026, as shown by the value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' (RCP Average row, Approve column)
Form the evidence must take. The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' will be the sole resolution source. The displayed value in that exact cell on RealClearPolitics must be exactly 37.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 10, 2026.
Does not count.
- Any RCP approval average value other than exactly 37.8%
- Any value in a row or column other than the 'RCP Average' row's 'Approve' column
- Any polling average or approval figure from any source other than the specified RCP table
- A value shown at any time other than exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 10, 2026
- A missing, unavailable, or blank cell in the specified table on Oct 10, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
Deadline. 2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00
- RCP approval average — The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval'.
- exactly 37.8% — The precise displayed number 37.8%, with no rounding tolerance or other value accepted.
- sole resolution source — Only the value in the specified RCP table cell decides the outcome.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The deadline (1:00 PM ET on Oct 10, 2026) has not yet passed (current time is 11:00 AM ET), and no evidence from the specified RealClearPolitics table has been provided.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 10, 2026. The provided sources do not include any such table or value.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A screenshot or direct link to the RealClearPolitics table showing the RCP Average row's Approve column value at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 10, 2026.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 3d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.