| claim | market | venues | horizons |
traded |
| Ruben Gallego out as Senator? — Before Oct 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$66 |
| Ljubljana mayoral election winner? — Anton Rop
Elections |
7.5% |
kals |
1 |
$66 |
| Bank of Mexico rate decision in November — Hike more than 50bps
Economics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$66 |
| Which states will redistrict before the midterms? — Minnesota
Elections |
2.4% |
kals |
1 |
$66 |
| Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? — Minnesota
Elections |
2.5% |
kals |
1 |
$66 |
| Arkansas Governor winner? — Fred Love
Elections |
1.9% |
kals |
1 |
$66 |
| Washington 04 House General Election: voter turnout — Above 210K
Elections |
64% |
kals |
1 |
$66 |
| NY-17 House election: Effie Phillips-Staley vote percent — At least 1%
Elections |
— |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Ohio Governor margin of victory — Acton, 12+ pts
Elections |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Nebraska Governor margin of victory — Republicans, 10+ pts
Elections |
41% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — Lula da Silva, 6-9%
Elections |
1.5% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| California 34 House General Election: voter turnout — Above 158K
Elections |
24% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Alabama Governor election: Doug Jones vote percent — At least 48%
Elections |
18% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| New York Governor margin of victory — Hochul, 28+ pts
Elections |
3.7% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| West Virginia Senate General Election: voter turnout — Above 550K
Elections |
29% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Maine Senate winner? (Person) — Patrick Dempsey
Elections |
— |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| NY-04 House election: Blay Tarnoff vote percent — At least 3%
Elections |
14% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Battleground Senate Combo: which states will Democrats win? — Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oh
Elections |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes) — Yes, ≥19%
Elections |
1.5% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| OH-13 House winner? — Carey Coleman
Elections |
2.4% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Idaho Senate election: Matt Loesby vote percent — At least 3%
Elections |
30% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Amazonas Governor winner? — Isael Munduruku
Elections |
— |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| IA-02 House election: Lindsay James vote percent — At least 52%
Elections |
36% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election? — New York
Elections |
76% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| US tariff revenue for 2026 — Above $80 billion
Economics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| Florida Senate election: Angie Nixon vote percent — At least 48%
Elections |
15% |
kals |
1 |
$65 |
| LA-04 House election: Mike Johnson vote percent (1st Round) — At least 68%
Elections |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| Will Nancy Mace resign before the midterms? — Before election day 2026
Elections |
4.1% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| 2028 Democratic VP nominee — Jamie Dimon
Elections |
— |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| NY-15 House election: Andre Easton vote percent — At least 2%
Elections |
22% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| Chile rate decision in October — Cut 1-25bps
Economics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| Alaska Senate election: Mary Peltola vote percent (Final Round) — At least 54%
Elections |
7.5% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| California 04 House General Election: voter turnout — Above 230K
Elections |
64% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| VA-05 House election: John McGuire vote percent — At least 60%
Elections |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| NY-21 House election: Christopher Schmidt vote percent — At least 2%
Elections |
— |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| IN-04 House election: Jim Baird vote percent — At least 62%
Elections |
44% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| FL-04 House election: Aaron Bean vote percent — At least 54%
Elections |
52% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| New Mexico Governor election: Gregg Hull vote percent — At least 50%
Elections |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| Nigerian Senate election winner? — PDP
Elections |
10% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| New Hampshire Senate election: Chris Pappas vote percent — At least 50%
Elections |
82% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| TX-11 House election: August Pfluger vote percent — At least 64%
Elections |
31% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| AL-06 House winner? — Maurice Mercer
Elections |
1.8% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? — North Carolina
Elections |
— |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| GA-03 House winner? — Maura Keller
Elections |
2.7% |
kals |
1 |
$64 |
| US headline CPI inflation in December 2030 — Above 1.5%
Economics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$63 |
| CA-11 House election: Scott Wiener vote percent — At least 58%
Elections |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$63 |
| Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win? — Iowa
Elections |
0.7% |
kals |
1 |
$63 |
| Will Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes? — Before Mar 1, 2
Politics |
60% |
kals |
2 |
$63 |
| CO-05 House election: Roy Matthewson vote percent — At least 1%
Elections |
— |
kals |
1 |
$63 |
| Nanaimo mayoral election winner? — Sarah Lovegrove
Elections |
— |
kals |
1 |
$63 |