Decided, but not yet settled

Kalshi contracts the evidence says are already decided, while the venue has not yet settled them.

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Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/25-10/2)? — Above 8.3%

kalshi · closes 2026-10-02 · Elections

0.940 6.0c residual

undecided high confidence buy YES moved 8 → 93 evidence disagrees with the market wrong form of evidence not the named source book pulled — not buyable window unknown

The deadline (Oct 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET) has not yet occurred, so it is impossible to determine whether the condition is met or not based on current evidence.

No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.

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Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/18-9/25)? — Above 7.9%

kalshi · closes 2026-09-25 · Elections

0.940 6.0c residual

undecided high confidence buy YES moved 60 → 93 evidence disagrees with the market wrong form of evidence not the named source book pulled — not buyable evidence led the market

The current time is before the deadline, and no evidence from VoteHub has been provided. All sources are from other polling organizations, not the required authority.

Democrats Hold Solid Lead On Generic Ballot ↗ 2026-09-23
A new Echelon Insights poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 51% to 43%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 51% Republicans 43% Echelon Insights poll · likely voters · ±3.6%…
Democrats Maintain Solid Lead on Generic Ballot ↗ 2026-09-22
A new Quantus Insights poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 50% to 42%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 50% Republicans 42% Quantus Insights poll · likely voters · ±2.9%…
Democrats Open Up Big Lead on Generic Ballot ↗ 2026-09-22
A new The Economist/YouGov poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 52% to 38%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 52% Republicans 38% The Economist/YouGov poll · likely voters…

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Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11) — Above 5.6%

kalshi · closes 2026-09-11 · Elections

0.960 4.0c residual

undecided high confidence buy YES moved 68 → 95 evidence disagrees with the market wrong form of evidence not the named source book pulled — not buyable evidence led the market

The evidence does not include any data from the named authority (VoteHub) showing the required margin at the specified time. The deadline has not yet passed, so the condition cannot be determined as already met or failed.

Democrats make sharp gains among Latino voters in battleground districts: Poll ↗ 2026-09-08
A new poll found that Democratic candidates have made notable gains among Latino voters living in battleground House districts since 2024 — gains that could determine control of Congress next year. A new Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll shared with Axios s…
Three Reasons Democrats May Not Have The Midterms In The Bag: Polling Bias, Polling Shifts, And Swing Voter Apathy ↗ 2026-09-03
By Manzanita Miller With the midterm election two months away, Democrats are maintaining an advantage of over five points in the latest generic congressional ballot average — an average that includes both likely voters and U.S. adults depending on the survey —…
Generic Congressional Ballot: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletin ↗
🕒 The latest on the generic ballot Updated September 9, 2026 The generic ballot hasn't seen much movement over the past month. Today, Democrats' margin is sitting at D +6.6. At the beginning of August, it was a nearly identical D +6.5. In other Silver Bulletin…

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Last pass 1h ago · checked 25, decided 15 of 57 candidates.