| claim | market | venues | horizons |
traded |
|---|
| Will SCOTUS let USPS enforce ballot-mail rules? — Before Nov 3, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$271 |
| How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Above 66
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$269 |
| When will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia? — Before Dec 1, 2026
Politics |
48% |
kals |
3 |
$267 |
| Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Apr 1, 2027
Politics |
22% |
kals |
1 |
$265 |
| Will Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms? — Before Nov 3, 2026
Politics |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$261 |
| Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 220
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$261 |
| Will the American Affordability and Jobs Act become law? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
44% |
kals |
2 |
$261 |
| Will Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$253 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Patrick Bumatay
Politics |
1.3% |
kals |
1 |
$253 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Miles Taylor
Politics |
9.0% |
kals |
1 |
$249 |
| US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 — Above 9%
Politics |
20% |
kals |
1 |
$246 |
| Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026? — Above 9.0%
Politics |
— |
kals |
2 |
$246 |
| Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 210
Politics |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$240 |
| How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 222
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$234 |
| US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 — Above 3%
Politics |
84% |
kals |
1 |
$229 |
| How many people will Trump pardon in 2026? — 25 to 49
Politics |
1.1% |
kals |
1 |
$229 |
| Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law? — Before 2027
Politics |
11% |
kals |
1 |
$228 |
| Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Charlie Javice
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$228 |
| How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026? — Exactly 2
Politics |
14% |
kals |
1 |
$227 |
| When will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
11% |
kals |
1 |
$226 |
| Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 14
Politics |
1.5% |
kals |
1 |
$225 |
| How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 234
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$225 |
| Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Kirsten Gillibrand
Politics |
7.5% |
kals |
1 |
$218 |
| Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$217 |
| Which G7 leader will leave office next? — Donald Trump
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$217 |
| Which leaders will meet before 2027? — Takaichi and Xi
Politics |
58% |
kals |
1 |
$217 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Lisa Monaco
Politics |
8.5% |
kals |
1 |
$216 |
| Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 12
Politics |
1.5% |
kals |
1 |
$211 |
| Next DCCC chair? — Greg Stanton
Politics |
6.7% |
kals |
1 |
$210 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — JAWBONE Act
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$204 |
| How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 23
Politics |
4.0% |
kals |
1 |
$201 |
| Will Wales announce an independence referendum? — Yes
Politics |
28% |
kals |
1 |
$201 |
| Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada? — Before Jul 1, 2029
Politics |
42% |
kals |
1 |
$199 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Javier Milei
Politics |
2.9% |
kals |
1 |
$198 |
| Who will be arrested in 2026? — Kash Patel
Politics |
3.0% |
kals |
1 |
$198 |
| Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? — Houston
Politics |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$196 |
| Will any state submit ballot-mail data to USPS? — Yes
Politics |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$194 |
| Will Christopher Luxon announce their departure as Prime Minister? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$194 |
| Next DCCC chair? — Lizzie Fletcher
Politics |
1.8% |
kals |
1 |
$191 |
| Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Michelle Bowman
Politics |
4.7% |
kals |
1 |
$190 |
| Ken Martin out as DNC chair? — Before Jul 1, 2027
Politics |
34% |
kals |
1 |
$190 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Christopher Wray
Politics |
5.3% |
kals |
1 |
$187 |
| Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? — Nicolás Maduro
Politics |
2.5% |
kals |
1 |
$185 |
| How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 21
Politics |
14% |
kals |
1 |
$185 |
| Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton? — Bill Cassidy
Politics |
20% |
kals |
1 |
$184 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Jeffery Williams
Politics |
11% |
kals |
1 |
$181 |
| Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026? — Formal USMCA amendment
Politics |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$179 |
| Will Fox win summary judgment against Smartmatic? — Before 2028
Politics |
14% |
kals |
1 |
$179 |
| Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — Michael Kratsios
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$177 |
| How many people will Trump pardon in 2026? — 500 to 999
Politics |
19% |
kals |
1 |
$176 |