| claim | market | venues | horizons |
traded |
|---|
| Will the Treasury announce sanctions on a Chinese bank? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
25% |
kals |
2 |
$117 |
| Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Lisa Blunt Rochester
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$116 |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Joni Ernst
Politics |
6.2% |
kals |
1 |
$115 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Joe Giudice
Politics |
22% |
kals |
1 |
$115 |
| Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? — Bill Clinton
Politics |
5.4% |
kals |
1 |
$114 |
| Shawn Fain announces departure as UAW President? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
2.0% |
kals |
1 |
$114 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Daniel Hale
Politics |
13% |
kals |
1 |
$112 |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State? — Robert O'Brien
Politics |
14% |
kals |
1 |
$111 |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? — William Ruto
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$110 |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026? — Duncan v. Bonta
Politics |
8.5% |
kals |
1 |
$110 |
| Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France? — Yes
Politics |
5.7% |
kals |
1 |
$106 |
| What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? — G20
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$106 |
| How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 230
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$106 |
| Which state laws will be enacted in 2026? — AI Anti-Discrimination
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$105 |
| Who will be the next DNC Chair? — David Hogg
Politics |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$104 |
| Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 12
Politics |
10% |
kals |
1 |
$104 |
| Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law? — Before Jan 4, 2027
Politics |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$103 |
| Sara Duterte out as Vice President of the Philippines? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$102 |
| When will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor? — Before Jan 1, 2028
Politics |
66% |
kals |
1 |
$100 |
| How many people will Trump pardon in 2026? — 1000 or more
Politics |
14% |
kals |
1 |
$100 |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? — Emmerson Mnangagwa
Politics |
1.6% |
kals |
1 |
$99 |
| Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — James Bullard
Politics |
3.3% |
kals |
1 |
$99 |
| Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? — Before Nov 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$98 |
| Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank? — Klaas Knot
Politics |
32% |
kals |
1 |
$98 |
| Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 250
Politics |
1.5% |
kals |
1 |
$97 |
| How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms? — At least 3
Politics |
2.5% |
kals |
1 |
$94 |
| Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Oct 2026?
Politics |
3.0% |
kals |
1 |
$94 |
| Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? — Abolish ICE
Politics |
2.9% |
kals |
1 |
$94 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Safaree Samuels
Politics |
14% |
kals |
1 |
$93 |
| Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? — Before Jan 1, 2028
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$93 |
| Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? — Bill Belichick
Politics |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$89 |
| How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 22
Politics |
7.5% |
kals |
1 |
$89 |
| Will USPS perform mandatory ballot-mail verification? — Yes
Politics |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$89 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Félix Tshisekedi
Politics |
3.6% |
kals |
1 |
$87 |
| Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026? — 8.9%
Politics |
— |
kals |
2 |
$85 |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026? — Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United Stat
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$84 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Tom Cotton
Politics |
0.1% |
kals |
1 |
$83 |
| Next DCCC chair? — Lauren Underwood
Politics |
3.1% |
kals |
1 |
$83 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? — Before Oct 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$83 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Denis Sassou Nguesso
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$83 |
| Which G7 leader will leave office next? — Giorgia Meloni
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$82 |
| Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$82 |
| Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank? — François Villeroy de Galhau
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$81 |
| Will Christopher Luxon announce their departure as Prime Minister? — Before Oct 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$81 |
| Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru? — Before Jul 1, 2027
Politics |
7.0% |
kals |
1 |
$80 |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — At least 21
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$79 |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Elbridge Colby
Politics |
3.0% |
kals |
1 |
$76 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Daniel Noboa
Politics |
3.8% |
kals |
1 |
$74 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Jose Muyet
Politics |
8.6% |
kals |
1 |
$73 |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Steve Feinberg
Politics |
5.4% |
kals |
1 |
$70 |