| claim | market | venues | horizons |
traded |
| Ruben Gallego out as Senator? — Before Oct 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$66 |
| Which state laws will be enacted in 2026? — Health Information Privacy Act
Politics |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$66 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Kimberly Guilfoyle
Politics |
18% |
kals |
1 |
$63 |
| Who will be arrested in 2026? — Lee Jae Myung
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$63 |
| Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026? — 8.6%
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
3 |
$63 |
| Next DCCC chair? — Morgan McGarvey
Politics |
2.0% |
kals |
1 |
$62 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — DeAndre Way
Politics |
8.6% |
kals |
1 |
$62 |
| When will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor? — Before Oct 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$62 |
| Will Iceland ban commercial whaling? — Yes
Politics |
32% |
kals |
1 |
$62 |
| Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 25
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$59 |
| Which G7 leader will leave office next? — Andy Burnham
Politics |
2.5% |
kals |
1 |
$59 |
| Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Jerry Moran
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$59 |
| Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru? — Before Jan 1, 2028
Politics |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$59 |
| Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$58 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Matthew Kacsmaryk
Politics |
0.4% |
kals |
1 |
$57 |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Tom Cotton
Politics |
2.0% |
kals |
1 |
$56 |
| When will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader? — Before Jul 1, 2027
Politics |
24% |
kals |
1 |
$55 |
| When will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor? — Before Apr 1, 2027
Politics |
50% |
kals |
1 |
$54 |
| Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 20
Politics |
7.0% |
kals |
1 |
$54 |
| Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? — Diosdado Cabello
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$54 |
| Which state laws will be enacted in 2026? — $15 Minimum Wage by 2029
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$54 |
| Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? — Vladimir Padrino López
Politics |
2.5% |
kals |
1 |
$53 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? — Before Nov 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$52 |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? — Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$52 |
| How many FY2027 continuing resolutions will become law? — At least 3
Politics |
56% |
kals |
1 |
$51 |
| Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader? — Before Sep 1,
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$51 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Matthew Schwartz
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$51 |
| Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? — Separate HSI from ICE
Politics |
4.2% |
kals |
1 |
$50 |
| Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 240
Politics |
1.5% |
kals |
1 |
$50 |
| Ken Martin out as DNC chair? — Before Dec 1, 2026
Politics |
18% |
kals |
1 |
$50 |
| Who will be the next DNC Chair? — Faiz Shakir
Politics |
13% |
kals |
1 |
$49 |
| Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
1.5% |
kals |
1 |
$49 |
| Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? — María Corina Machado
Politics |
2.0% |
kals |
1 |
$48 |
| How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 25
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$48 |
| Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank? — Nadia Calviño
Politics |
4.0% |
kals |
1 |
$48 |
| Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank? — Fabio Panetta
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$48 |
| Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank? — Olli Rehn
Politics |
3.0% |
kals |
1 |
$48 |
| Which state laws will be enacted in 2026? — Companion AI Protection Act
Politics |
8.0% |
kals |
1 |
$48 |
| Will the TX-23 special election be scheduled to a date before the midterms? — In 2026
Politics |
3.0% |
kals |
1 |
$48 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Frederik X
Politics |
2.8% |
kals |
1 |
$46 |
| Will the Senate overrule the parliamentarian on budget reconciliation in 2026? — Before 2027
Politics |
2.0% |
kals |
1 |
$46 |
| John Thune announces departure as Senate Majority Leader? — Before Nov 3, 2026
Politics |
3.0% |
kals |
1 |
$46 |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? — Taye Atske Selassie
Politics |
3.0% |
kals |
1 |
$45 |
| Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary? — Nevada
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$44 |
| Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules? — Befor
Politics |
65% |
kals |
1 |
$44 |
| Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$42 |
| Who will be the next Secretary of the Army? — Derrick Anderson
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$41 |
| How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Above 68
Politics |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$41 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Eric Tung
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$39 |
| Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — 8.1%
Politics |
17% |
kals |
2 |
$39 |