| claim | market | venues | horizons |
traded |
|---|
| Will the Jones Act be repealed? — Before Jan 4, 2027
Politics |
8.4% |
kals |
1 |
$946 |
| When will Big Bend border construction resume? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
14% |
kals |
3 |
$939 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Jho Low
Politics |
30% |
kals |
2 |
$938 |
| Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? — Sonia Sotomayor
Politics |
11% |
kals |
1 |
$933 |
| Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$933 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Pam Bondi
Politics |
38% |
kals |
1 |
$922 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
10% |
kals |
1 |
$915 |
| Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Kevin Hassett
Politics |
6.3% |
kals |
1 |
$914 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday
Politics |
2.1% |
kals |
1 |
$914 |
| When will a farm bill become law? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
20% |
kals |
3 |
$911 |
| What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? — United Nations
Politics |
12% |
kals |
1 |
$910 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Ron DeSantis
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$904 |
| What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? — Not nine justices
Politics |
8.2% |
kals |
1 |
$903 |
| Will Kelly Loeffler be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Politics |
1.8% |
kals poly |
2 |
$901 |
| How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 210
Politics |
19% |
kals |
1 |
$900 |
| Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? — Portland
Politics |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$900 |
| Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Donald Trump
Politics |
3.6% |
kals |
1 |
$897 |
| How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?
Politics |
4.0% |
kals |
1 |
$897 |
| How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 202
Politics |
41% |
kals |
1 |
$888 |
| Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Kenneth Petty
Politics |
5.7% |
kals |
1 |
$884 |
| Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? — John Roberts
Politics |
18% |
kals |
1 |
$878 |
| Will Democrats win a House supermajority in the Midterms? — At least 290
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$877 |
| When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada? — Before Nov 1, 2026
Politics |
26% |
kals |
4 |
$867 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Joe Biden
Politics |
2.9% |
kals |
1 |
$865 |
| How many bills will President Trump sign in Oct 2026? — At least 12
Politics |
75% |
kals |
1 |
$857 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — DEFIANCE Act
Politics |
3.3% |
kals |
1 |
$856 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned? — Before Nov 1, 2026
Politics |
3.4% |
kals |
1 |
$838 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$837 |
| How much will the US acquire Greenland for? — $1.2 trillion or more
Politics |
0.7% |
kals |
1 |
$837 |
| Ruben Gallego out as Senator? — Before Nov 3, 2026
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$836 |
| Will Angela Rayner be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
Politics |
4.2% |
kals poly |
2 |
$829 |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — At least 20
Politics |
19% |
kals |
1 |
$808 |
| How many bills with Trump veto in 2026? — At least 3
Politics |
18% |
kals |
1 |
$801 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — Railway safety bill
Politics |
12% |
kals |
1 |
$799 |
| Will Mike Waltz be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Politics |
4.6% |
kals poly |
2 |
$798 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Mark Kelly
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$792 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Emil Bove
Politics |
4.2% |
kals |
1 |
$788 |
| How many bills will President Trump sign in Oct 2026? — At least 14
Politics |
78% |
kals |
1 |
$785 |
| Will Trump invoke the DC Home Rule Act? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
12% |
kals |
1 |
$779 |
| Will Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
2.5% |
kals |
1 |
$774 |
| Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 8
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$763 |
| Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$763 |
| How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 18
Politics |
60% |
kals |
1 |
$762 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$760 |
| Who will be arrested in 2026? — Loretta Lynch
Politics |
4.8% |
kals |
1 |
$756 |
| Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Rachel Cherwitz
Politics |
12% |
kals |
1 |
$751 |
| How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 218
Politics |
8.5% |
kals |
1 |
$751 |
| Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? — Chicago
Politics |
26% |
kals |
1 |
$747 |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? — Félix Tshisekedi
Politics |
4.8% |
kals |
1 |
$734 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Chris Krebs
Politics |
9.5% |
kals |
1 |
$732 |