| claim | market | venues | horizons |
traded |
|---|
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — David Stras
Politics |
1.1% |
kals |
1 |
$537 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? — Before Jul 1, 2027
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$535 |
| Will any CA state executives be federally charged with fraud? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$531 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Mark Milley
Politics |
8.0% |
kals |
1 |
$526 |
| What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027? — 10% or above
Politics |
86% |
kals |
1 |
$523 |
| How many House votes for the Protect College Sports Act? — Below 200
Politics |
44% |
kals |
1 |
$522 |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Ron DeSantis
Politics |
6.7% |
kals |
1 |
$521 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$517 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Pam Bondi
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$514 |
| Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026? — 8.5%
Politics |
2.5% |
kals |
3 |
$512 |
| Will India resume the Indus Waters Treaty? — Yes
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$509 |
| What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027? — 30% or above
Politics |
25% |
kals |
1 |
$507 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Lee Jae Myung
Politics |
5.9% |
kals |
1 |
$505 |
| Who will be arrested in 2026? — Tom Homan
Politics |
5.9% |
kals |
1 |
$504 |
| Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Rick Rieder
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$502 |
| When will James McDonald be confirmed as SDNY U.S. attorney? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$498 |
| Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? — Christopher Waller
Politics |
2.5% |
kals |
1 |
$496 |
| When will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
2 |
$495 |
| How many bills will President Trump sign in Oct 2026? — At least 18
Politics |
58% |
kals |
1 |
$489 |
| Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? — Visible identification
Politics |
2.1% |
kals |
1 |
$486 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — Jewish American security
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$485 |
| Which leaders will meet before 2027? — Lula and Milei
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$480 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — ROTOR Act
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$477 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Jens-Frederik Nielsen
Politics |
3.2% |
kals |
1 |
$474 |
| Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Bill Hwang
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
2 |
$468 |
| Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241? — Before Aug 1, 2028
Politics |
63% |
kals |
1 |
$467 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Justin Sun
Politics |
24% |
kals |
1 |
$466 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Elissa Slotkin
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$464 |
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026? — Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory
Politics |
9.0% |
kals |
1 |
$462 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Andrew Weissmann
Politics |
11% |
kals |
1 |
$459 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Reid Hoffman
Politics |
8.0% |
kals |
1 |
$457 |
| How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act? — Above 56
Politics |
76% |
kals |
1 |
$456 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Kisean Anderson
Politics |
26% |
kals |
1 |
$455 |
| Who will be arrested in 2026? — Ilhan Omar
Politics |
37% |
kals |
1 |
$450 |
| Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 100
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$445 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Sébastien Lecornu
Politics |
16% |
kals |
1 |
$445 |
| Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? — Mask ban
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$442 |
| When will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy? — Before Mar 1, 2027
Politics |
25% |
kals |
3 |
$440 |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Dan Driscoll
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$437 |
| Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Mark Warner
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$433 |
| Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Josh Hawley
Politics |
6.5% |
kals |
1 |
$428 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Michael Park
Politics |
2.5% |
kals |
1 |
$426 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Tucker Carlson
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$424 |
| Will the EU adopt a ban on Israeli settlement goods? — Yes
Politics |
9.5% |
kals |
1 |
$423 |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Ramzan Kadyrov
Politics |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$422 |
| What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027? — 20% or above
Politics |
40% |
kals |
1 |
$411 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? — Before Jul 1, 2028
Politics |
70% |
kals |
1 |
$409 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — George Soros
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$408 |
| How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term? — At least 4
Politics |
11% |
kals |
1 |
$405 |
| Will Wes Streeting be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
Politics |
2.4% |
kals poly |
2 |
$397 |