| claim | market | venues | horizons |
traded |
|---|
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Nayib Bukele
Politics |
2.1% |
kals |
1 |
$176 |
| Next DCCC chair? — Ami Bera
Politics |
3.1% |
kals |
1 |
$173 |
| How many people will Trump pardon in 2026? — 50 to 99
Politics |
5.3% |
kals |
1 |
$171 |
| Who will be the next Lieutenant Governor of New Jersey? — Shirley Emehelu
Politics |
26% |
kals |
1 |
$170 |
| Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Catherine Cortez Masto
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$168 |
| Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026? — 8.7%
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
3 |
$168 |
| US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 — Above 5%
Politics |
83% |
kals |
1 |
$168 |
| Will the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional? — Bef
Politics |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$166 |
| US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 — Above 6%
Politics |
83% |
kals |
1 |
$165 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Kathryn Mizelle
Politics |
1.4% |
kals |
1 |
$164 |
| When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? — Before Nov 3, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$164 |
| Next DCCC chair? — Jamie Raskin
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$163 |
| Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India? — Before Jul 1, 2027
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$163 |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — At least 22
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$160 |
| Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 230
Politics |
4.5% |
kals |
1 |
$159 |
| How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — At least 226
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$156 |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — Mike Waltz
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$155 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Kevin Newsom
Politics |
0.9% |
kals |
1 |
$153 |
| Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands? — Yes
Politics |
9.0% |
kals |
1 |
$153 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — ADS-B revenue-use restriction
Politics |
12% |
kals |
1 |
$151 |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State? — Ric Grenell
Politics |
9.5% |
kals |
1 |
$150 |
| Will the House impeach a federal judge this year? — Before 2027
Politics |
3.2% |
kals |
1 |
$149 |
| Who will be arrested in 2026? — John Kerry
Politics |
3.3% |
kals |
1 |
$146 |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — At least 10
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$146 |
| Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? — Amy Coney Barrett
Politics |
5.0% |
kals |
1 |
$145 |
| When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax? — Before Nov 1, 2026
Politics |
14% |
kals |
3 |
$143 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? — NO FAKES Act
Politics |
9.0% |
kals |
1 |
$142 |
| Will the D.C. Circuit fully affirm the Perkins Coie ruling? — Before 2028
Politics |
70% |
kals |
1 |
$142 |
| Chuck Schumer out as Senate Minority Leader? — Before Nov 3, 2026
Politics |
3.5% |
kals |
1 |
$141 |
| Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention? — Chicago
Politics |
1.9% |
kals |
1 |
$141 |
| Ruben Gallego out as Senator? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$141 |
| What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? — G7
Politics |
5.5% |
kals |
1 |
$137 |
| Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2027? — Yes
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$135 |
| How many bills with Trump veto in 2026? — At least 5
Politics |
7.7% |
kals |
1 |
$134 |
| Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — Rand Paul
Politics |
6.0% |
kals |
1 |
$134 |
| When will the House vote on the Protect College Sports Act? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
62% |
kals |
3 |
$133 |
| Who will Trump pardon? — Tou Thao
Politics |
21% |
kals |
1 |
$132 |
| Who will be arrested in 2026? — Pam Bondi
Politics |
2.9% |
kals |
1 |
$132 |
| US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 — Above 11%
Politics |
4.0% |
kals |
1 |
$131 |
| When will Trump lower tariffs on Canada? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
52% |
kals |
4 |
$129 |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? — Steven Menashi
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$128 |
| When will Trump nominate someone to the Election Assistance Commission? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Politics |
22% |
kals |
2 |
$127 |
| Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? — Before Jan 1, 2030
Politics |
11% |
kals |
1 |
$126 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Joe Kent
Politics |
3.4% |
kals |
1 |
$123 |
| How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term? — At least 2
Politics |
46% |
kals |
1 |
$123 |
| When will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader? — Before Nov 1, 2026
Politics |
7.5% |
kals |
1 |
$123 |
| Will Christopher Luxon announce their departure as Prime Minister? — Before Nov 7, 2026
Politics |
4.0% |
kals |
1 |
$123 |
| Who will be arrested in 2026? — Joe Biden
Politics |
2.7% |
kals |
1 |
$121 |
| Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? — Indeterminate
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$120 |
| Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 50
Politics |
— |
kals |
1 |
$118 |