Decided, but not yet settled
Kalshi contracts the evidence says are already decided, while the venue has not yet settled them.
Default
Everything
Elections
31277
Sports
24657
Economics
5393
Crypto
5361
Politics
2636
Commodities
2523
Financials
2293
Climate and Weather
1645
Entertainment
466
Science and Technology
219
Mentions
144
all
already yes
already no
include undecided
already yes
high confidence
buy YES
moved
38 → 91
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
Trump signed an executive order on or around September 29–30, 2026, directing federal agencies to replace 'Artificial Intelligence' and 'AI' with 'Super Intelligence' and 'SI' in official U.S. government use.
Multiple independent news outlets report that President Trump signed an executive order renaming AI to 'Super Intelligence' before the October 1, 2026 deadline, and the White House is cited as the source of the announcement. The evidence is consistent, dated, and directly addresses the condition.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
55 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
The contract's condition is poorly specified and no evidence establishes a clear peak traffic value above or below 4 for the given period; the week is still ongoing and sources only give partial or anecdotal data.
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Hormuz Transits at Lowest in Over Two Months ↗
2026-10-08
The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to the lowest in more than two months after attacks on tankers in the key waterway reached their highest last week since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Reuters reported, citing shipping data…
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PGSA Announces Halt to Traffic through Strait of Hormuz ↗
Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority (PGSA) announced on Sunday that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been suspended until further notice, citing recent “illegal movements” by US military forces in the region.…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy NO
moved
43 → 8
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The deadline has not yet passed (current time is 9:12 AM ET, deadline is 1:00 PM ET) and no evidence from the required authority (RealClearPolitics) has been provided.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
medium confidence
buy YES
moved
61 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
Multiple news articles describe a planned meeting between Trump and AI CEOs including Jensen Huang, but none report that the meeting has actually taken place. As of the current time, the meeting may still be in the future.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
56 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
News reports citing Kpler data show daily commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz in single digits or low teens for some days in the Sep 7-13, 2026 period (e.g., 7 on Monday, 6 on Tuesday, 7 on Thursday), but no complete IMF PortWatch sum for the full period is shown.
The resolution period runs through September 13, 2026, and the current time is before that date; moreover, no IMF PortWatch data for the full period has been provided, so the condition cannot yet be established.
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Traffic in Hormuz Strait slows down on Monday, data shows ↗
2026-09-08
Traffic in Hormuz Strait slows down on Monday, data shows The number of commodity vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz totalled seven on Monday, according to Kpler data released on Tuesday. This is a drop from the previous day, where eight vessel trans…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
1 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The deadline has passed but no evidence shows the RCP website's exact value at the required time; vague reports from other sources do not satisfy the sole resolution source.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
56 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The deadline is still several hours away (1:00 PM ET is later than the current time), and none of the evidence comes from RealClearPolitics or shows the RCP average at that specific time.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
36 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The deadline has not passed and no evidence from the required authority (whitehouse.gov Presidential Actions page) has been provided, so it is impossible to determine whether the condition is met or not.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
65 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The deadline (1:00 PM ET on Oct 10, 2026) has not yet passed (current time is 11:00 AM ET), and no evidence from the specified RealClearPolitics table has been provided.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
64 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
Trump was photographed on at least Oct 5, 2026 (South Lawn and Grand Island rally), Oct 6, 2026 (South Lawn and Baltimore Ravens arrival), and Oct 7, 2026 (San Antonio rally), based on news captions.
The resolution period runs through Oct 11, 2026, and today is Oct 9, so the week is not complete. The sources also do not directly document Getty Images tagged editorial photos for each of the seven days.
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US President Donald Trump speaks to the press before departing from the South Lawn of the White House on October 5, 2026 ↗
2026-10-06
US President Donald Trump speaks to the press before departing from the South Lawn of the White House on October 5, 2026…
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See the world in vertical: Top photos by AP photojournalists ↗
2026-10-07
President Donald Trump is pictured in the reflection of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles' sunglasses as Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House before departing, Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Tom……
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USA-TRUMP/ ↗
2026-10-06
US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before departing for Baltimore County, Maryland, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., US, October 6, 2026. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
47 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The observation period (Sep 28 to Oct 4) is not complete; we are only at Oct 2. Even if some days have Getty-linked photos, we lack evidence for all 7 days and cannot rule out
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
medium confidence
buy NO
moved
74 → 6
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
As of September 6-7, 2026, the RNC released the Dallas convention speaker lineup and multiple outlets reported Thune is not on it and will not be speaking; the convention itself has not yet occurred, with programming scheduled September 9-10.
The condition concerns actual delivery of remarks during convention programming on September 9-10, 2026, but the evidence is from before the convention and only establishes that Thune was not on the announced speaker list. A report that someone is not scheduled to speak is not the same as a Source Agency establishing after the event that he did not speak.
-
John Thune Won’t Speak At GOP Midterm Convention ↗
2026-09-07
Punchbowl News: “When the RNC released the speaker list for Dallas, Thune wasn’t on it. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso and NRSC Chair Tim Scott are. A source familiar with Thune’s Dallas activities said the South Dakota Republican will be doing fundraisers…
-
Thune skips midterm convention speech as GOP leaders gather for election push ↗
2026-09-06
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is among the Republican Party’s most notable national leaders not delivering a speech at the first-ever midterm convention in Texas later this week. The Republican National Committee has released the full list of keynot…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
7 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No provided source comes from RealClearPolitics or displays the RCP approval average at the required time and date.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
7 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
The evidence consists of news articles and commentary about various polls, but no source establishes the specific RCP Average value at the exact required time. The deadline has not yet passed at the current time, and the required RCP table reading is not in evidence.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
50 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
The available evidence from before the dinner merely lists Sundar Pichai as an expected attendee, but does not confirm that a purposeful in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Sundar Pichai took place. No source establishes the meeting itself.
-
Nvidia, OpenAI CEOs to attend Xi dinner at White House ↗
2026-09-19
"It'll be a very popular and hot-ticketed event," the official said on condition of anonymity, adding that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, SpaceX and Tesla chief Elon Musk, Apple head Tim Cook and Google CEO Sundar Pichai will also attend.…
-
Sundar Pichai, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos among guests for Xi Jinping’s White House state dinner ↗
2026-09-19
Washington, September 19, 2026 (Yes Punjab News) Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Tesla and SpaceX chief Elon Musk and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos are among prominent business leaders expected to attend a White House state dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping next w…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
3 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No source reports a direct meeting or phone call between Donald Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa in September 2026. The closest reference (source 10) mentions al-Sharaa rebuffing a 'call' from Trump, but this does not indicate a direct communication between the two men.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
16 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution deadline (Sep 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET) has not yet passed, and none of the provided evidence is the official White House 'Presidential Actions' page at that specified time. Therefore, the condition cannot be confirmed as satisfied or impossible.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
2 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence from the named authority (RealClearPolitics) is present in the supplied sources, and the deadline has passed. Without RealClearPolitics' published value, it cannot be determined whether the condition was met.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
3 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence indicates any meeting or phone call between Donald Trump and Greg Abbott in September 2026; all provided sources discuss unrelated events or persons.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
38 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution condition requires direct evidence from the whitehouse.gov Presidential Actions page at the specified check time. No such evidence has been provided; the sources are third-party reports that do not establish what appears on that page.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
35 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
The event week (Sept 21-27) is not yet complete (current date Sept 25). Even if photos exist for several days, it is impossible to determine that the final count will be exactly 7. Therefore, the condition cannot be already yes or already no.
-
WORLD-NEWS-UN-TRUMP-GET ↗
2026-09-23
U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026, in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images/TNS)…
-
U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday, Sept. 22, 2026, in New York City. ↗
2026-09-22
U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday, Sept. 22, 2026, in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images/TNS)…
-
rubinart ↗
2026-09-24
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the 81st session of the United Nations (U.N.) General Assembly at U.N. Headquarters on Sept. 22, 2026, in New York City. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/TNS)…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
23 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The evidence provided does not show any visits by Trump to any US state in September 2026, so the condition of at least 8 distinct states cannot be confirmed as met or not met at this
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
13 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The supplied evidence contains no material from RealClearPolitics and no approval figure that matches the required range; therefore the condition cannot be confirmed as met or failed.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
70 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The contract requires the VoteHub approval polling average at the deadline, but none of the provided sources mention VoteHub or its polling average. All sources reference other polls (e.g., New York Times, ActiVote, CBS/YouGov) which are not the named authority.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
5 → 96
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
Multiple polls in early October 2026 report Trump approval ratings between 31% and 38% (Reuters/Ipsos 32%, AP-NORC 31%, Marquette 38%), but none is the RCP Average.
No evidence provided shows the RealClearPolitics RCP Average figure, and the current time is before the specified 1:00 PM ET moment. Individual poll numbers cannot establish the RCP Average.
-
Trump Approval Stuck at 32% ↗
2026-10-05
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds President Donald Trump’s approval at 32%, while 65% disapprove. Trump Approval Approve 32% Disapprove 65% Reuters/Ipsos poll · adults…
-
Trump Approval at 36% ↗
2026-10-05
A new Winston Group (R)/Winning the Issues poll finds President Trump’s approval at 36%, while 60% disapprove. Trump Approval Approve 36% Disapprove 60% Winston Group/Winning the Issues poll · registered voters…
-
Trump approval rating mired at record low: Poll ↗
2026-10-06
President Trump maintained his record low approval rating in a survey released Monday, as Republicans push to ramp up support for their party’s candidates with about four weeks until the midterms. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found the president’s approval held stea…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
10 → 96
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
No evidence from RealClearPolitics showing the RCP Average approval figure at the specified time has been provided, and the deadline has not yet been reached, so the condition is neither established nor ruled out.
-
President Donald Trump’s Schedule for Wednesday, September 30, 2026 ↗
2026-09-30
by Rich Mitchell at CDN - Schedule Summary: President Donald Trump will have executive time, hold a few policy meetings, host a celebration, and make an announcement on Wednesday. President Donald Trump’s Itinerary for 9/30/26 ALL TIMES EDT 8:00 AM Executive t…
-
Trump’s Day in Office: September 30, 2026 ↗
2026-09-30
President Donald Trump starts Wednesday with executive time and a policy meeting before turning to a Hispanic Heritage Month celebration. Then comes the part everyone will be watching: an afternoon announcement with the Secretary of Commerce Lutnick, followed …
-
Poll: Trump's Approval Rating Drops to New Low as Midterms Loom ↗
2026-09-28
President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a new low in another poll as the midterms are just weeks away. The post Poll: Trump’s Approval Rating Drops to New Low as Midterms Loom appeared first on Breitbart .…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
medium confidence
buy YES
moved
22 → 96
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
No evidence shows RealClearPolitics reporting President Trump's approval rating between 38.8% and 39.0% at 11:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026. The articles predate the deadline and rely on different polling sources.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
71 → 96
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
The resolution period (9/21 - 9/27) is still ongoing as of the current time (2026-09-24). Therefore, it is impossible to determine whether the week's traffic will ultimately be above 10. The evidence shows daily counts near 10, but the condition cannot be settled until the period ends.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
68 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
All evidence as of 2026-09-22 concerns an upcoming or ongoing planned visit to New York for the UN General Assembly, with reports that he may land at Newark rather than JFK. No source confirms that Netanyahu has actually set foot in New York City before the October 1 deadline.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy NO
moved
43 → 3
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution period (Sep 6-12, 2026) is still ongoing as of the current time (Sep 7, 2026). None of the provided sources show any nominations sent to the Senate during this period, but the definitive evidence (the exact whitehouse.gov page at the deadline) is not yet available. Therefore, it is undecided whether the condition will be met.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The convention has not yet occurred (scheduled for Sept 9-10, 2026, and current time is Sept 7). No evidence shows Mike Johnson has already spoken at the convention; all references are to future plans or past events elsewhere.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The evidence contains only archive/search pages and the market rules; there is no official Roll Call or Kalshi count for the 8/30-9/5 period, and the recording deadline of 10:00 AM ET on Sep 6, 2026 has not yet passed.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
9 → 96
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
No source shows the RealClearPolitics 'President Trump Job Approval' table at the exact deadline time, so the required value is not established. The cited articles are about other polls or the president's schedule, not the RCP average.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
9 → 97
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No source provides the actual RCP 'President Trump Job Approval' table value at the required time. Third-party reports mention poll averages but do not give the specific 38.8% figure from the correct table row and column.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
58 → 96
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The convention is scheduled for September 9–10, 2026, and the current time is before that period. No evidence indicates that Byron Donalds has already spoken, and it remains possible that he will speak during the event.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
Sources show the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked since February 2026 with tanker traffic dropping near zero early in the conflict, but none provide the actual traffic count for August 31-September 6, 2026.
The resolution period has ended but no source supplies the specific Hormuz traffic figure for 8/31-9/6, and the contract's named authority or exact unit of measure is not stated in the evidence.
-
Hormuz Tracker — Daily Ship Transit Dispatch ↗
A daily public dispatch tracking ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Updated every 24 hours from satellite AIS data, with annotated geopolitical events from 2019 to today.…
-
2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis ↗
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran. In retaliation, the Iranian Revolut…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
All cited sources predate the convention and only report that a speaker lineup was revealed or that Paxton is involved, not that Paxton actually delivered remarks at American Airlines Center on September 9 or 10, 2026.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The convention occurs on September 9–10, 2026, and the current time is September 7, 2026—before the event. No source confirms that Ted Cruz has already spoken or definitively shows he will not speak.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The evidence only shows Trump in Virginia and D.C. in late August; no comprehensive record of his August travels exists in the sources, and the VISITAREA rules have not been applied. The condition is not established.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
9 → 98
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence from the sole resolution source (RealClearPolitics) has been provided. All sources are news articles citing other polls, not the RCP average itself. Therefore, the condition cannot be confirmed as met or not met.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
35 → 98
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The deadline has not yet passed (current time is before 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23), and none of the supplied sources come from the sole resolution authority (RealClearPolitics table). News articles about individual polls do not establish the RCP Average figure.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
12 → 98
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
18 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence from the required authority (IMF PortWatch) or any source reports the weekly transit call total for the Suez Canal for the specified dates.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
Last pass 1h ago · checked 25, decided
15 of 57 candidates.