Decided, but not yet settled
Kalshi contracts the evidence says are already decided, while the venue has not yet settled them.
Default
Everything
Elections
31277
Sports
24657
Economics
5393
Crypto
5361
Politics
2636
Commodities
2523
Financials
2293
Climate and Weather
1645
Entertainment
466
Science and Technology
219
Mentions
144
all
already yes
already no
include undecided
already yes
medium confidence
buy YES
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The most current, authoritative source (AAA) shows the U.S. average gas price this week is $4.1436, above $4.080. The conflicting Aug 30 figure predates the current week and is from a less authoritative source.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
40 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution date is September 28, 2026, which is in the future relative to all evidence. The condition cannot be determined yet.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
65 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
No evidence provides the US national average gas price for the current week; only state-level data is available, which does not satisfy the resolution criteria.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
55 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
18 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
The condition specifies September 14, 2026, which is still in the future at the time of evidence (September 7-11, 2026). No evidence addresses the price on that date.
-
AAA: National Average Gas Price Jumps 13 Cents in One Week ↗
2026-09-11
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up 13 cents since last week to $4.27 as crude oil prices continue climbing, according to a press release from AAA. Volatility in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed crude oil back in the…
-
National average gas price jumps 13 cents in a week to $4.27, AAA says ↗
2026-09-11
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline climbed 13 cents in the past week to $4.27 as crude oil prices continued to rise, according to AAA. AAA … The post National average gas price jumps 13 cents in a week to $4.27, AAA says appeared first…
-
National gas price jumps 13 cents to $4.27 ↗
2026-09-10
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose 13 cents in one week to $4.27, AAA reported Thursday. AAA tied the increase to rising crude oil prices as volatility in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil back to about $100 per barrel for the first…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
51 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
All evidence describes gas prices on or around Labor Day (September 7, 2026), but the contract resolves on 'tomorrow' relative to the market close, which is September 10, 2026. No source provides the US national average gas price for that date, so the condition cannot be determined.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
11 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
All evidence concerns diesel prices between September 5 and 9, 2026, with the highest recorded national average at $5.9015 on September 7. The contract asks about the price on September 14, 2026, which is still in the future. No source establishes that price.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
28 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
Several sources report U.S. average diesel prices above $5.82 on dates between September 4 and September 7, 2026, but the resolution condition explicitly requires the price on September 14, 2026. That date has not yet occurred, so the condition cannot be established as already met or already not met.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for August 2026 has not yet been released (expected at 8:30 AM ET on September 4, 2026). All provided sources are previews, expectations, or other data (e.g., ADP, jobless claims) and do not contain the official BLS nonfarm payroll figure. Therefore, the resolution condition cannot be determined.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
50 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
No source provides the diesel price on October 12, 2026. The closest evidence (source [3]) reports U.S. diesel at $6.23 on October 9, but that is not the required date.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy NO
moved
55 → 8
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence of AAA's published national average regular gas price for October 8, 2026, has been provided. All cited sources either report figures for earlier dates or are unrelated.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
59 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
As of October 5-6, 2026, AAA-reported national average regular gasoline prices were around $4.36-$4.41 per gallon, above $4.2800, but no source reports AAA's U.S. average for October 12, 2026.
The resolution date is October 12, 2026, which is in the future relative to the current time and all cited evidence. No source establishes AAA's published national average for that specific date, so the condition cannot yet be considered met.
-
Gas prices rising in San Luis Obispo County, find lowest costs ↗
2026-10-04
By KAREN VELIE While California gas prices continued increasing last week, the average cost for gas in the United States began dropping. The average price for gas rose one cent to $6.56 a gallon in San Luis Obispo County last week, according to AAA. At $6.38, …
-
October brings a dip in gas prices ↗
2026-10-05
The average price of regular unleaded declined by 11 cents nationally to $4.36 today, while the average is New York State is down a penny to $4.47. A year ago, the average price was $3.13 nationally and $3.18 in NYS, AAA reported today. “After a record-setting…
-
National gas price drops 7 cents after record-setting September, AAA says ↗
2026-10-02
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents over the past week to $4.41, following a record-setting September at the pump, according to AAA. … The post National gas price drops 7 cents after record-setting September, AAA …
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy NO
moved
41 → 8
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
Sources show AAA national average regular gas prices around $4.47–$4.49 per gallon in late September 2026, but no source establishes the October 5, 2026 national average.
The resolution date is October 5, 2026, and the current date is October 1, 2026. No evidence yet establishes the AAA national average for October 5, so the condition cannot be resolved as already met or already failed.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
50 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No source establishes the AAA national average for the relevant date. The available evidence is either about other dates, other regions, or market probabilities, not the required authority's published figure.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
55 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution condition specifies the price on September 28, 2026. The current evidence only shows prices for earlier dates (September 25 and 26). No source provides the AAA national average price for September 28, 2026.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
45 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
News reports from Sept 20-25, 2026 cite AAA national regular gas averages around $4.47-$4.48 per gallon, but none report the Sep 28, 2026 average.
The resolution date (Sep 28, 2026) has not yet occurred as of the current time, and no source establishes AAA's reported national average for that specific date. Nearby prices around $4.47-$4.48 do not satisfy the strict 'greater than $4.4800' condition for Sep 28.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
33 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
The condition is for September 26, 2026, but no evidence shows AAA's official average for that date. The available sources are from previous days and report prices around $4.48, not above $4.4850, and none are from AAA itself.
-
AAA says national gas average reaches $4.48 a gallon ↗
2026-09-24
The national average price of regular gasoline reached $4.48 a gallon Thursday, nearly 5 cents higher than a week earlier, according to AAA. The group said that is the highest national average it has recorded for this time of year. The post AAA says national g…
-
National gas price climbs to $4.48 a gallon, AAA says ↗
2026-09-25
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline climbed nearly 5 cents over the past week to $4.48, reaching its highest level on record for this time of … The post National gas price climbs to $4.48 a gallon, AAA says appeared first on WRNJ Radio …
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
34 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution date (September 28, 2026) has not yet occurred, and no source provides AAA's official average regular gas price for that specific date. All evidence is from before the deadline and cannot establish the condition.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
11 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
All evidence dates from before September 30, 2026, and no source reports the diesel price on that exact date. The condition cannot be resolved until the specified date arrives or is reported.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
40 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution condition is about the AAA-reported national average on September 24, 2026. The current time is early on that day, and no source provides AAA's official price for that specific date. All cited prices are from prior days or are not directly attributed to AAA in the required form.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
29 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No source provides the official BLS month-over-month CPI change for August 2026; all references are forecasts, nowcasts, or unrelated CPI data. The BLS has not yet published the required figure (scheduled for September 11, 2026).
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
41 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
All evidence is from October 4–8, 2026, and none reports the AAA national average for October 9, 2026. The condition cannot be confirmed or denied without that specific data.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
50 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
All evidence is from October 5 or earlier and does not provide the AAA-reported national average regular gas price for October 6, 2026, which is the required date.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
40 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The condition refers to a future date (October 5, 2026) that has not yet occurred, and none of the provided sources report a diesel price for that date.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
45 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence in the supplied sources addresses the FRED series ACTLISCOUUS or any housing inventory count for September 2026. All sources are unrelated (obituaries, hog inventory, etc.).
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
28 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
Oura has launched its IPO roadshow, filed an updated S-1, and set a price range of $40-$44 per share as of September 23, 2026, but no SEC declaration of S-1 effectiveness, final IPO pricing, or exchange ticker assignment has been reported.
The resolution criteria require a specific confirming event (SEC declaring S-1 effective, IPO priced, or ticker assigned). The evidence shows Oura is in the process of an IPO (roadshow, S-1 filing, price range) but none of the three defined confirmation events have been reported to have occurred.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
26 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The condition requires the Diesel Price on September 14, 2026. That date is still in the future (current time is September 10, 2026), so no evidence can establish it yet. All provided sources are from earlier dates and do not report the price on September 14.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
23 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution condition requires the average regular gas price as reported by AAA on September 10, 2026. As of the current time (September 9, 2026), no source in the evidence provides AAA's reported price for that date. The condition cannot be determined yet.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
26 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
12 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
The resolution date (September 9, 2026) has not yet occurred, and no evidence shows the Florida average regular gas price as reported by AAA on that date. All sources are from before September 9 and do not establish the condition.
-
Labor Day Gas Prices Spike Significantly Over Last Year Across Florida ↗
2026-09-07
As Florida drivers headed into Labor Day, gas prices were up just pennies over last week but 80 cents over a year ago, according to AAA. Sunday night, the average price per gallon in Florida was $3.91, up two cents over last week but significantly over one yea…
-
Diesel Prices Rise, Unleaded Gas Hovers Under $4 in Florida ↗
2026-09-08
By The News Service of Florida Gas prices in Florida continue to near the $4 mark, while diesel in the state has returned to figures...…
-
Florida Gas Prices High for Labor Day Weekend, Still Lower Than National Average ↗
2026-09-04
Floridians looking to enjoy the long Labor Day weekend at the beach or at a BBQ can expect a bit more pain at the pump compared to this date last year, according to AAA. As of Sept. 4, the average price for a gallon of gas in the Sunshine State was $3.95, up 8…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
20 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
The deadline for the resolution condition is September 14, 2026, and the current time is before that date. No evidence can establish what the diesel price will be on that future date; all cited sources report prices from earlier dates only.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
19 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence shows AAA's official national average regular gas price for September 7, 2026. The current time is early on the resolution date and AAA has not yet published the required figure.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
No source from the named authority (AAA) reports the U.S. average regular gas price on September 7, 2026. The only price figure (national average $4.15 from a news article) is for September 6 and is not attributed to AAA.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
28 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
No source in the evidence reports the AAA New Jersey average regular gas price for October 9, 2026, so the resolution condition is not established. The deadline has not yet passed at the current time (2026-10-09T02:57:14Z), and the required AAA figure is not in the record.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
12 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
As of the evidence, AAA reported Connecticut's average regular gas price at $4.49 on Sept 28, 2026, but no AAA figure for Oct 2, 2026 is shown.
The resolution date is Oct 2, 2026, and no source reports AAA's Connecticut average for that date. The condition cannot be established as already met or not met.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
61 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
No source from the U.S. Treasury has been provided, and the deadline has not yet passed. The condition cannot be confirmed or denied based on market quotes alone.
-
Treasury yields move lower as inflation concerns persist ↗
2026-09-29
U.S. Treasury yields dipped slightly early Tuesday after marching to fresh highs during the previous session amid persistent concerns over inflationary pressures. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield — the key benchmark for mortgage borrowing, auto loans and c…
-
Treasury yields fall as investors await key PCE inflation reading ↗
2026-09-30
US Treasury yields moved lower Wednesday, recovering some ground after a heavy selloff in the previous session. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 5.553%, after reaching its highest level since 2002 in the previous session. TreasuryYieldDayMonthUS 2Y4.88%-0.00…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
medium confidence
buy YES
moved
43 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
证据中最新美国全国平均柴油价格为9月19日的$6.4866，低于$6.505，且没有9月23日当天的直接价格数据，无法确认条件已满足或已不可能。
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
5 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution date (September 14, 2026) has not yet occurred, and no evidence shows the diesel price on that date. Therefore, the condition cannot be verified as already met or not met.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
25 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The condition requires the diesel price on September 14, 2026 to be above $5.88. All available evidence reports prices from earlier dates (September 4–9, 2026) and does not establish the price on the specific future date.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
2 → 91
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No source reports the AAA national average regular gas price for September 9, 2026. The condition is neither confirmed as true nor false.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence from AAA reporting the California average regular gas price on September 7, 2026, has been provided. All sources either predate the deadline or do not cite AAA's statewide average for that date.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence provided addresses the Bank of Israel's August Monetary Committee meeting or its policy rate decision. All sources concern other central banks.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
2 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence in the supplied sources addresses gas prices on the resolution date (2026-10-06). All cited articles refer to prices on or before Oct 5, 2026, which cannot establish whether the condition is met for tomorrow.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
68 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The condition specifies the price on October 5, 2026, which is a future date relative to the current time and all evidence. No source reports the AAA national average for that date.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
42 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The condition requires the diesel price on October 5, 2026 to be above $6.30, but all evidence is from before that date or concerns other dates/regions; no source reports the actual price on October 5, 2026.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
21 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The Freddie Mac PMMS for Oct 1, 2026 is released at 12:00 p.m. ET, but the current time is before that release. No evidence shows the official Freddie Mac value for that date.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
28 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
As of September 30, 2026, the named Freddie Mac PMMS release for October 1, 2026 has not yet been published, so the condition cannot be resolved now.
-
Mortgage Rates - Freddie Mac ↗
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.95%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.30%.…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
30 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
当前日期为2026年9月24日，距截止日期9月28日还有4天，所有证据均非9月28日的AAA平均价格，无法判定条件是否已满足。
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
60 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
As of mid-September 2026, news reports citing AAA put the U.S. national average regular gas price around $4.43–$4.48, but no source establishes the September 30, 2026 AAA figure.
The resolution date is September 30, 2026, and today is September 23, 2026, so the condition cannot yet be confirmed or refuted. The cited prices are from mid-September and do not establish the September 30 average.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
66 → 93
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No source reports the diesel price on September 23, 2026, so it is unknown whether it was above $6.510.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
56 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
No evidence from AAA, the likely named authority, establishes that the US average gas price is above 4.4700 on the relevant day. The market closes before the end of the trading day on 2026-09-23, so the condition is not yet determinable from available sources.
-
AAA: Gas Prices Keep Climbing as Crude Oil Remains High ↗
2026-09-22
JEFFERSON CO., Pa. (EYT) — Gas prices are 20 cents higher in Western Pennsylvania this week at $4.738 per gallon, according to AAA East Central’s Gas Price Report. Nationwide Trends […]…
-
AAA Fuel Prices ↗
Fuel Prices Subscribe About AAA Join AAA Visit AAA Contact Us Gas Prices EV Charging Prices Gas Cost Calculator News Top Trends…
-
Live Ticking Average of Fuel Pump Prices - Search by State or Province ↗
Regular Unleaded Gas Prices Compared to the Live Ticking Average: Prices are Up 0.9 ¢ from Yesterday's Avg* of $4.459 Prices are Up 10.9 ¢ from Last Week's Avg* of $4.359 Prices are Up 38.8 ¢ from Last Month's Avg* of $4.080 Prices are Up 130.4 ¢ from Last Yea…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
14 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
56 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence shows that the BLS has released the August 2026 CPI-U index, so it is impossible to determine whether the condition (above 334.750) has been met or not.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
28 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
The resolution date is September 14, 2026, and the current time is September 9, 2026. No source reports the diesel price on September 14, so the condition cannot be established as already met or not met.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
65 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window closed
The BLS has not yet released the August 2026 Core CPI data. All provided sources either discuss other countries' inflation, US jobs data, or forecasts, but none contain the official BLS figure required by the contract.
-
9월 PPI·CPI·FOMC, 비트코인 금리 시험대 ↗
2026-09-08
미국 8월 생산자물가지수(PPI)와 소비자물가지수(CPI), 주간 실업수당 청구, 연방준비제도(연준)의 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의가 이번 주부터 잇따라 예정됐다. 물가와 고용 지표는 비트코인(BTC) 등 위험자산의 금리 민감도를 확인할 주요 자료다. 미국 노동통계국(BLS)은 8월 PPI를 한국시간 10일 오후 9시 30분에 발표할 예정이다. 8월 CPI는 11일 같은 시간 공개된다. 두 지표는 각각 생산자와 소비자가 체감하는 가격 변화를 보여주는 대표적…
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미 8월 CPI 11일 밤 공개, 앤트로픽 IPO 늦춰졌다 ↗
2026-09-06
미국 8월 소비자물가지수(CPI)가 한국시간 11일 오후 9시 30분 공개된다. 같은 주 시장이 주목했던 앤트로픽(Anthropic)의 기업공개(IPO) 일정은 당초 거론보다 뒤로 밀렸다는 보도가 나왔다. 미 노동통계국(BLS)에 따르면 8월 CPI는 미국 동부시간 9월 11일 오전 8시 30분 발표된다. 한국시간으로는 같은 날 오후 9시 30분이다. CPI는 미국 가계가 소비하는 상품과 서비스 가격 변화를 보여주는 대표 물가 지표다. 연방준비제도(Fed)의 금…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
medium confidence
buy YES
moved
2 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No source in the evidence provides a clear statement that the undefined 'Diesel Price' on September 9, 2026, is above $5.920. The closest figures (U.S. national average) are from September 7 and are below $5.920, and other articles are about different regions or currencies, not the relevant metric.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
28 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
AAA reported Texas average regular gas price of $3.6726 as of September 8, 2026, which is below $3.6900; no AAA figure for September 9, 2026 is shown.
The resolution condition is specifically for September 9, 2026 as reported by AAA, and the available evidence only covers September 8, 2026. The September 9 AAA figure has not yet been shown, so the condition is not established either way.
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AAA Fuel Prices - American Automobile Association ↗
Today's AAA National Average $4.1514 Price as of 9/8/26 Today's AAA Texas Avg. $3.6726 Price as of 9/8/26 County Retail Prices 4.3740 to 3.8080…
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Texas Gas Prices (September 08, 2026): $3.67/gal and Why | Energy Factbook ↗
Home › Gas prices › Texas Texas Gas Prices and Why They Are What They Are Prices as of September 08, 2026, per AAA · Updated September 08, 2026 As of September 08, 2026, regular gasoline in Texas averages $3.67/gallon (the 2nd-lowest in the U.S.), per AAA — 0.…
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Texas Gas Prices Today — Regular $3.67/gal · Diesel $5.50 ↗
As of 8 September 2026, regular gasoline in Texas averages $3.67/gal, the state average. Source: Daily fuel gauge report, AAA (a third-party aggregator, published daily).…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
medium confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
All cited sources show AAA's national average for September 5, 2026 or earlier, not for September 6, 2026 as required by the contract.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence provides the AAA-reported national average regular gas price for August 31, 2026; the sources only show earlier or non-AAA figures.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
medium confidence
buy YES
moved
21 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
所有证据都指向10月5日或之前的AAA数据，没有10月6日当天的官方AAA平均价格报告。因此无法确认条件是否已满足。即便10月5日价格$4.36高于门槛，但合同要求的是10月6日，且数据来源并非AAA官方直接发布。
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October brings a dip in gas prices ↗
2026-10-05
The average price of regular unleaded declined by 11 cents nationally to $4.36 today, while the average is New York State is down a penny to $4.47. A year ago, the average price was $3.13 nationally and $3.18 in NYS, AAA reported today. “After a record-setting…
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AAA: Local pump prices remain steady ↗
2026-10-05
Gas Prices Drop Nationally as October Arrives BUFFALO, NY — The national average price for a gallon of gasoline is $4.36, down 11 cents from last Monday. One year ago, the price was $3.13. The New York State average is $4.47, down one cent from last Monday. A …
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
42 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence provides the AAA-reported national average regular gas price for the United States on September 30, 2026, which is the sole condition. The market closed before any such report could be issued, and the available sources do not establish the required figure.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
26 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution condition requires the diesel price on September 28, 2026 to be above $6.36. All available evidence predates September 28, 2026, so it cannot establish the condition for that future date.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
10 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The resolution condition specifies the price on September 21, 2026, but the current date is September 18, 2026, and no sources report AAA's national average for September 21. Therefore, the condition cannot be assessed yet.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
21 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
25 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
3 → 90
evidence disagrees with the market
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence provides the Diesel Price on September 9, 2026 in US dollars. The latest available US average diesel price is $5.9015 on September 7, 2026, below the threshold, but the condition is for September 9 and no data for that date is present.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
5 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
The evidence shows US national average gas prices at $4.15 on Sep 7–8, below the threshold of 4.1950. No source reports a national average above 4.1950. The market deadline is still in the future, so the condition for 'tomorrow' has not yet been determined.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
22 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
All evidence predates September 9, 2026, and reports national averages around $4.15, which is below the threshold. No source from AAA or otherwise provides the required figure for the specific date of September 9, 2026.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
27 → 92
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
All evidence concerns gas prices on September 7, 2026 (Labor Day), not the contract's target date of September 9, 2026 ('tomorrow' relative to the current time). Moreover, the reported price of $4.15 is below the 4.1600 threshold. Without any data for the correct date, the condition is undetermined.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
60 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
64 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
The condition specifies the average gas price for Pennsylvania on September 8, 2026, as reported by AAA. As of September 7, 2026, that date has not arrived, so no evidence can establish whether the condition is met or not.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
21 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
All sources are about other states or general AAA commentary; no source reports the AAA average regular gas price for North Carolina on September 7, 2026.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy NO
moved
58 → 4
evidence disagrees with the market
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
None of the provided sources report the U.S. national average diesel price on September 7, 2026. The only U.S. diesel prices cited are from earlier dates (September 3, 4, and 6) and are all below $5.905, but the condition requires the price on the specific date of September 7, 2026.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence from the named authorities (Trading Economics or NAR) reports the August 2026 existing home sales figure; the provided sources discuss new home sales, forecasts, or unrelated data.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
None of the provided sources contain any data from FRED for series APU000072610 for August 2026, nor any mention of the required electricity price statistic.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the named authority) provides the official August 2026 CPI year-over-year figure. The deadline has not yet passed, so the condition remains unresolved.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
19 → 96
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
evidence led the market
The resolution date (October 12, 2026) has not yet occurred, and no evidence shows AAA's published price for that date. The condition cannot be already met or already impossible based on current data.
-
October brings a dip in gas prices ↗
2026-10-05
The average price of regular unleaded declined by 11 cents nationally to $4.36 today, while the average is New York State is down a penny to $4.47. A year ago, the average price was $3.13 nationally and $3.18 in NYS, AAA reported today. “After a record-setting…
-
Gas Prices Down Slightly/Highest Fall Prices Ever ↗
2026-10-09
10/9 AAA Arizona says the average for a gallon of regular gas in the state dropped by 6-cents this week for an average of $4.71 per gallon. The national average fell 5-cents to $4.36 per gallon. Both prices are record highs for autumn. Tucson has the lowest pr…
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AAA: Gas Prices Falling, But National Average Still at Record Autumn High ↗
2026-10-08
Gas prices remain the highest they’ve ever been for this time of year. According to AAA, even though the national average dropped 5 cents this past week to $4.36, pump prices remain at record highs for autumn. This is the first year the national average has be…
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
high confidence
buy YES
moved
7 → 95
evidence disagrees with the market
wrong form of evidence
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
No evidence shows the AAA national average regular gas price for Oct 9, 2026, so it is impossible to determine whether it exceeds $4.3650.
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
undecided
low confidence
buy YES
moved
2 → 94
evidence disagrees with the market
not the named source
book pulled — not buyable
window unknown
unparseable adjudication
No source was cited for this reading — treat it as unverified.
Full evidence and the
contract's rules →
Last pass 1h ago · checked 25, decided
15 of 57 candidates.